Shut Up And Vote

[April 19th, 2006]

^The Net Effect

Can Minnis' Dem challenger take down the speaker with blogs' help?

A great test of blogs' promised ability to topple the powerful is emerging with Democrat Rob Brading's challenge to Oregon progressives' top bogeywoman, House Speaker Karen Minnis.

Brading got help recently from two of the blogosphere's brighter stars, Markos Moulitsas Zúniga (www.dailykos.com) and Jerome Armstrong (www.mydd.com), the pied pipers of people-powered "netroots"—the grassroots movement fueled by blogs.

They stopped by a Brading event in Portland last week as part of promoting their new book, Crashing the Gate, which is about how Dems could actually start winning elections again.

Since Democrat Howard Dean's surprising presidential run in 2004 (Moulitsas was among his advisers), blogs have been touted as a political equalizer—bringing volunteers and dollars to outsider campaigns that can offset the enormous institutional support for incumbents and insiders.

So far, that promise has been mostly hypothetical; like Dean, most darlings of the blogger set have lost their elections.

And Brading faces an uphill climb, by conventional measures. According to campaign-finance reports filed last week, Minnis has already raised $238,000 more than Brading, who has collected less than $40,000. The four-term incumbent, who is receiving national support in her bid to retain her east Multnomah County seat, expects to raise $750,000 by the November election. Neither candidate is opposed in their parties' May primaries.

Brading, who hasn't set a fundraising goal, lost a surprisingly close six-point race against Minnis in 2004. Now, he's mounting the type of campaign Armstrong and Moulitsas think can unseat entrenched power.

In an impromptu demonstration, Moulitsas and Armstrong appeared at a Brading event April 10 at McMenamins Kennedy School. The event was organized, scheduled, and promoted on the Web all within six days by Kari Chisholm, a political consultant, Internet strategist and co-founder of the 2-year-old blog BlueOregon. [Editor's note: Author Jeff Alworth, also a BlueOregon co-founder, was not involved in planning the Brading event.]

Despite the short notice, a suggested $20 donation for admission, and no traditional advertising, the event attracted an estimated 150 people.

"It was completely a creation of blogs," Brading says. "There were some familiar faces in the audience, but a lot of folks I don't know."

Brading, a 56-year-old director of MetroEast Community Media, says it's one more piece of evidence that people are engaging in politics who didn't have access before blogs.

And there's another piece of supporting evidence: More than one-third of the attendees at the event expressed interest in volunteering for his campaign. Whether it will be enough to push Brading over the top remains to be seen.

Blogs themselves are just one part of a long-term campaign, says Moulitsas. Brading has followed the Armstrong-Moulitsas prescription and this time enjoys both full support from Dems statewide and greater name recognition in his district.

Now it's time to see if harnessing the people power of the netroots will actually result in an election win.

&mdashJeff Alworth

^Can You Believe This?

Gov. Ted Kulongoski didn't sound too "theoretical" about the need for a sales tax last week.

In a televised debate April 10 with his two Democratic challengers, Kulongoski set off a brush fire when he seemed to endorse the idea of a sales tax. The tax is long thought of as the suicide bomb of Oregon politics, given its failure at the ballot nine times, most recently in 1993 when three out of four state voters rejected it.

Speculation followed that it was a slip of the tongue.

But during an interview last Thursday with WW, Kulongoski was clear that he supports a sales tax as part of a proposed overhaul of Oregon's tax system, if re-elected.

Kulongoski said the income tax, which schools rely on, is very unstable with the vagaries of the economy.

He then emphasized the need to revamp the state's tax system if Oregonians want to invest in what's needed for education and skills training.

Kulongoski also stressed raising the $10 minimum corporate income tax and ending the return of surplus tax revenues to corporations, a.k.a. the "kicker."

"There are a variety of things we're looking at,'' he says. "It can't be just a debate about taxes. It has to have some economic benefit to the state.... I do think...you have to look at providing stability in the tax structure."

When asked if he would include a sales tax as part of his comprehensive reform, Kulongoski said yes.

Neither of his two opponents in the Democratic primary, Lane County Commissioner Pete Sorenson nor former state treasurer Jim Hill, favors a sales tax.

The governor's position probably won't hurt him in next month's primary with his party's liberal base. But in the November general election with Republicans and independents in the mix, look for it to come up again, and again.

^Blog Watch

Add this to the list of complaints against Emilie Boyles: Bloggers blast the City Council candidate as a spammer. A post by "Aaron" on Metroblogging Portland complains about a message from Boyles' 16-year-old daughter, Kimberly (who has received $12,500 from her mom's campaign), to a listserv requesting legal advice for her and her mother in the state's investigation into the Boyles campaign. The listserv was dedicated to railroads in the Northwest (portland.metblogs.com/archives/2006/04/emilie_boyles_i.phtml).

The One True b!X found both Boyleses have posted off-topic messages to dozens of listservs and newsgroups such as one devoted to Celtic music and dance (launch.groups.yahoo.com/group/CelticCafeOREGON/message/570), where Boyles noted her candidacy and status as "an ordained minister in the Celetic [sic] Anabaptist Church."

^The Main Event

Thursday, April 20

Here's one if you're sick of forums that try to cover candidates' views from voter-owned elections to Coke or Pepsi. The NW Examiner will sponsor a City Council debate on just one topic: the controversial Northwest District Plan, which includes a blueprint adopted in 2003 for six parking structures in residential zones along Northwest 21st and 23rd avenues. NW Neighborhood Cultural Center Auditorium. 1819 NW Everett St. 7 pm. Free.

Monday, April 24

Where can you get free books, voter registration forms and the latest Aphex Twin, and hear about Multnomah County candidates? Stop by the Central Library for the League of Women Voters' Q&A session featuring county chair candidates Diane Linn and Ted Wheeler as well as District 2 commissioner contenders Jeff Cogen, Lew Frederick, Gary Hansen and Xander Patterson. Multnomah County Library, Central Branch (US Bank Room). 801 SW 10th Avenue. 11 am. Free.

^Political Chatter

Since city noise complaint officer Paul Van Orden answered WW's call to run as a write-in candidate for Multnomah County sheriff (see "The Write Stuff," WW, April 5, 2006), a small crew of volunteers has helped him launch a surprisingly legit operation.

Van Orden has circulated 1,500 full-color fliers—donated by a friend—and canvassed at several events, including a bicycle film festival and outside games at the Rose Garden.

"Very few people will not take a flier after I say I'm running," he says. "The response is universal and very positive."

Van Orden plans to crank it up in the campaign's final days, a must for an outsider relying on voters to scribble his name instead of choosing incumbent Sheriff Bernie Giusto or the other candidate on the ballot, Don DuPay. Van Orden plans to spend about $4,000 of his money to pay for cable TV ads. He also has a website (www.newsheriffpdx.com) and will take two weeks off to campaign full-time.

^Emilie Boyles

We interrupt the weekly trading cards leading up to Candidates Gone Wild on May 1 at the Roseland for this announcement: CGW is rescinding its invitation to City Council candidate Emilie Boyles.

That's because Boyles is under investigation for the signature gathering that qualified her to receive $150,000 in public funds. And the CGW committee is very troubled by Boyles' decision to give $12,500 of that money to her 16-year-old daughter for "campaign work."

To see WW's April 6 interview with Boyles that led to the decision, go to www.candidatesgonewild.com.