IOUS And "I Owe You"s

[November 15th, 2006] It's easy for Oregon Republicans to ascribe GOP gubernatorial challenger Ron Saxton's loss to national forces working against them. It's also true that Gov. Ted Kulongoski owes his opponent a "thank you" note.

Consider how bad things looked after May's Democratic primary.

Kulongoski's approval ratings had hovered down in Bush territory; former Gov. John Kitzhaber had considered challenging Kulongoski in the primary; and the 43,000-plus member Service Employees International Union went with longshot challenger Jim Hill in the primary, while other powerful Democratic players sat on their hands.

But Saxton failed to exploit Kulongoski's vulnerability in the general election—in part because he abandoned the political center to win over enough conservatives with tough stances on immigration and spending in the Republican primary. And that left Saxton with no appeal to the center, where disaffected Democrats and independent voters reside. Saxton even alienated some key moderate Republicans who supported him in 2002, like Bruce Samson, former director of public policy for Qwest and general counsel of NW Natural.

"He lost a lot of moderates," Samson says. "The Saxton that I knew before—something happened to that guy."

Here's who else Kulongoski can thank for his second term—and who may regret betting on red:

The Oregon Education Association

Before the primary, the 43,000-member teacher union sent its message of unhappiness with Kulongoski by declining to endorse a candidate.

Three days after the primary, when the message was received and Kulongoski looked weak, OEA endorsed him over Saxton and subsequently launched a $500,000 independent expenditure campaign, "Teachers for Ted."

What they want : K-12 to be the governor's top priority.

Ben Westlund Kulongoski's margin of victory was less than 7 percent—only about 3 percentage points more than the 4 percent that Constitution Party candidate Mary Starrett gnawed out of Saxton's hide.

Just imagine if Westlund, an independent state senator from Central Oregon, had gone through with his plans for a third-party run. Westlund threatened to run to Kulongoski's left on taxes, health care and the Iraq war. In the meantime, while Westlund's disappearance (and ultimate endorsement of Kulongoski) aided the governor, Starrett's appeal to bedrock conservatives forced Saxton to stay right.

What he wants: Westlund is considering a 2008 run for state treasurer and would surely love help from the guv.

Campaign staff Over the summer, Kulongoski upgraded his campaign staff. Hired gun Jim Ross came from California to take charge. Josh Kardon, a hard-nosed aide to Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden, quieted the Grand Ronde tribes, which spent nearly $1 million against Kulongoski in the primary. Former AFL-CIO director Tim Nesbitt strengthened union relations. And Kulongoski's press secretary, Anna Richter-Taylor, got her underfinanced boss tons of free media.

What they want: Kardon's boss doesn't have to worry about running against Saxton in 2010. Nesbitt and Richter-Taylor want Kulongoski as energized for the next four years as he's been for the past four months. (Whether Nesbitt joins the governor's staff will help determine that outcome.)

Here's who's unlikely to be invited to the inauguration:

Big Timber With the exception of Weyerhaeuser (which primarily cuts privately owned trees), Oregon's timber industry placed a massive, $1.4 million bet on Saxton. Kulongoski sued the feds last year to block logging on millions of acres of roadless areas and, as a member of the state land board, has influence over Oregon's vast state forests.

What they won't get: Four of seven spots on the powerful state Forestry Commission are up for appointment by Kulongoski.

Auto dealers Kulongoski's support for tougher tailpipe emissions and newfound concern about global warming drove car dealers into Saxton's camp. They donated well over $175,000 to the Republican's campaign.

What they won't get: A break from potentially costly regulation. Kulongoski plans to press on alternative energy and air cleanup. Both policies will require new investment, additional regulation and cost sharing, which point toward deep-pocketed market participants like auto dealers.

The beer and wine industry Over the past 15 years, no lobbyist has done more for his clients than Paul Romain of the Oregon Beer & Wine Distributors Association. Romain killed tax increases and preserved monopolies. Romain's clients strongly supported Saxton (and House Republicans).

What they won't get: Any sympathy from the governor. Kulongoski and legislative Democrats could use a higher beer tax to support social programs, and could help big grocers by undoing legal protections Romain erected around his clients.