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Listening to Justin Kerr, you might think this was the year that young people would turn on to politics. Two years ago, Kerr, 29, wouldn't have thought of voting. Politics was a joke: Special interests gave money. Legislation followed. One man couldn't fight the future. But then he saw his roommate's friend, Erik Sten, running for City Council. He looked at the Voters' Pamphlet. It clicked. "I realized how many ballot measures would change the constitution," says Kerr, a bartender and free-lance writer. Politics started to seem more relevant. "I became fascinated with the process," he says. So fascinated that he started his own "punk politics" radio talk show, called "Bring It On," which airs every Saturday afternoon on KXYQ 1010 AM (The Voice). Two weeks ago the topic was the Oregon Supreme Court's decision to limit victims' rights.Kerr and his co-host, Jessica Talisman, 24, were more irreverent the week before in discussing politicians such as Molly Bordonaro. "We talked about Molly in a bikini," he says. "That's a big topic." So is the governor's mustache. "It's what makes him hot," says Talisman. After hearing Kerr and Talisman, you might believe young adults were finding both gravity and fun in politics. Looking at this May's primary ballot you could see the evidence. In some parts of Portland, residents could vote for Bordonaro, a 29-year-old congressional candidate, Sten, a 30-year-old city commissioner, and Chris Beck, a 35-year-old state representative--all of whom went on to win. In all, 11 Gen-Xers ran for office in the metro area. Nine were victorious. It's not just Portland; it's happening all over the country, says author Michele Mitchell, 27, a former Capitol Hill staffer and public radio commentator. Mitchell's new book, A New Kind of Party Animal, claims that young Americans are "tearing up the political landscape" and "bringing about a fundamental change in American politics." But when state officials sifted through the numbers, they found something different. On May 19 young people in the tri-county area just shrugged and uttered a collective "whatever." Nine out of 10 didn't even bother to vote. Election experts, such as Secretary of State Phil Keisling, found the numbers stunning. "We have more college-educated, affluent voters than ever today. Turnout should be at a record high," says Keisling. "But there has been a sea change in our civic life and these numbers underscore it." The consequences of this shift are real. By sitting out elections, the 18-to-34-year-olds are turning over decision-making to a non-representative cross section of the population. Not surprisingly, their economic welfare is declining, while that of senior citizens--who do vote--is improving, leaving officials like Keisling to wonder why young adults would want to "unilaterally disarm themselves" in political combat. To gain some insight, Willamette Week surveyed 100 young people about why they didn't vote. The reasons they gave were as predictable as they were disheartening: They aren't paying attention; they're ignorant of how politics affect their lives; they're too cynical to give a damn. We also found, however, that young people aren't the only ones to blame: Candidates don't encourage voting; political consultants don't encourage voting; and parties don't encourage voting--despite record levels of campaign spending. "I hope these stats light a fire under all of us," says Keisling. "I hope they're a real wake-up call." Considering the overall record-low turnout of 35 percent in the May election, it's tempting to assume few people in any age group voted. But that's not true--there were startling differences between age groups: 65 percent of the registered senior voters in Portland's metro area did cast ballots. We know this because the May 19 election turnout was dissected in unprecedented fashion by staff members who work for Keisling and Sten. The analysts collected results from Clackamas, Multnomah and Washington counties and broke them down by age. The data showed that voting habits varied little among the three counties--regardless of party loyalties. For instance, young Democrats far outnumber young Republicans in Multnomah County, while the opposite is true in Clackamas County. Yet turnout among 18-to-34-year-olds in both counties was dismal: Only 13 percent of those registered voters in Multnomah participated in the May election, while the figure was 11 percent in Clackamas County. When turnout for the total 18-34 population was calculated, the numbers were even more grim: Only 9 percent voted in the May election. It's no secret that young people don't vote as frequently as senior citizens. Turnout for 18-to-34-year-olds in the 1994 and 1996 Oregon primary elections hovered around 9 percent, according to Labels & Lists, a Bellevue, Wash., firm that specializes in providing demographic data to marketers and political strategists. "Young people's turnout has gone down steadily since 1972," adds Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate in Washington, D.C. But it's the size of the gap between young and old voters in May's election that's disconcerting to election watchers. "Now we have the clearest documentation of how big a difference there is in participation between age groups," says Portland pollster Adam Davis. "And it's not a pretty picture." Not even a horde of young politicians could produce a healthy turnout--a fact that surprised some of the candidates. "It's depressing," says Sten, 30. "If you asked me several years ago if a bunch of young candidates would get more young people to vote, I would have said 'absolutely.' But the evidence says otherwise. The two don't seem to be linked." Why should young people care? What's in it for them? "The truth," says Davis, "is that we'd live in a different kind of place if young people were participating." The most striking support for this idea is found in data about the declining economic welfare of young Americans--a downward mobility that's occurring despite a stampeding stock market, soaring real-estate values and low unemployment. * Entry-level wages for male high-school graduates fell 28 percent between 1973 and 1995; for female high-school graduates, 19 percent. * Median income for families headed by someone under age 25 fell 28 percent during the same time, to $18,756--a drop that was mirrored in a sharp decline in home ownership among young Americans. * The poverty rate among American children rose 37 percent between 1970 and 1995. Now consider what happened to older Americans. "Between 1970 and 1995, thanks to progressive public policy, poverty among Americans over the age of 65 was reduced by more than 50 percent," New Yorker reporter William Finnegan writes in his new book, Cold New World. "[T]here is no doubt," Finnegan adds, "about who, generationally speaking, has paid for it." Social Security benefits are untouchable, he says, because senior citizens are so politically active. At the same time, senior citizens--by backing property tax initiatives--have avoided paying more for schools. In Oregon, apathy among younger voters has helped pass tax-limiting initiatives such as measures 5 and 47, says Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts. "The most resistance to tax increases of any kind come from people 55 and older," says the pollster. The result: less money for schools. Between 1991 and 1997, state funding for higher education fell by 18 percent. In-state tuition at the University of Oregon increased 80 percent during the same time, from $1,965 in 1990-91 to $3,540 in 1996-97. The budget for Portland Public Schools in 1991 was $352 million. Last year it was $331 million. If the Portland schools budget had continued to grow at its pre-Measure 5 rate, schools would have had approximately $496 million last year. Disparities in public spending aren't the only consequence of young adults' apathy. Keisling notes that the FICA payroll tax is the single largest tax paid by most younger citizens. "Yet it's not even discussed when tax cuts are debated in Congress," he says. "Voting is directly related to influence," adds Dan Lavey, a 32-year-old Republican consultant and former advisor to U.S. Sen. Gordon Smith. "When you look at the amount of federal spending on people over 55 versus under 35, it's ridiculous. If young people voted, politicians would have to be more responsive to their concerns. Young people don't get involved at their own peril." Young Oregonians seem to recognize that they're committing a form of political suicide. With the help of pollster Davis, WW devised a questionnaire concerning the voting habits and political attitudes of young adults. To find a cross-section of 18-to-34-year-olds, we fanned out to warehouses, construction sites, Pioneer Courthouse Square, office towers, restaurants, coffee shops, temp agencies and college campuses. After surveying 100 young people who said they did not vote, we found some puzzling results ("Survey Says," page 22). Clearly, young non-voters think voting is a worthy priority: 75 percent said voting was important, 82 percent said they should vote, and 66 percent said it was likely they would vote. Yet none of them did in May. Most of the respondents also said they were unhappy with government. Only 16 percent said candidates and elected officials were addressing issues most important to them. Just 20 percent said federal, state and local governments were heading in the right direction. Yet they didn't vote. Why not? If it's important and they're dissatisfied, then what's the problem? Many say they were too busy or they forgot. "I got very wrapped up in my job," says Deborah Sherris, 30, an administrative specialist who works for the state. "I know that voting makes a difference. I just wasn't dealing with the outside world." Others didn't see any real choices on the ballot because they thought politicians were selfish, corrupt or too similar. "Obviously, as a citizen you should vote," says radio talk-show host Talisman, who is also a student and a horse trainer. "But corporations run everything. We do not live in a true democracy." To these people, voting seems--at best--to be nibbling at the margins. And for the ambitious and impatient, that's simply not enough. People who study elections agree that there's no single reason for the low turnout among young voters. "The roots of the problem are deep in our political, educational and media culture," says Gans, the Washington, D.C., analyst. In fact, the roots run too deep for many young people to see. They came of voting age at a time, Gans explains, "when values shifted toward greater self-interest and against government; when the quality of education declined; when they were increasingly likely to be children of non-voting parents; when people could watch cable TV for days and days without seeing news or public-affairs programs." Politicians--even the young ones like Sten and Bordonaro--have contributed to the problem by not doing much, if anything, to encourage their peers to vote. Sten admits he's guilty. It all comes down to cold, hard numbers, he says. When he first ran for City Council two years ago, he explains, he thought he could win by getting a few thousand young Portlanders to vote. Then he learned just how infrequently young people did vote and how unlikely he was to ride their coattails to victory. So he changed strategy and started focusing his time, energy and money on more frequent voters. "You have to concentrate your message," he says. "If I spent all my time on those who wouldn't vote I'd lose." But don't generational leaders like Sten have an obligation to increase turnout? Sten's reply echoes the sense of futility felt by other young non-voters. "I don't know how to do it," he says. Besides, he thinks he can help fellow Gen-Xers in another way--by helping them get elected. "I put a higher premium on helping other candidates," he says. Lavey, who works as a consultant for Bordonaro, voices similar frustrations about trying to get young people interested in her congressional campaign. "I've somewhat given up on my friends and peers," Lavey says. "I've presented plenty of opportunities over the years for them to get involved in campaigns. I'm not sure I've succeeded [even] once or twice to get friends to come to events or rallies." At least Lavey and Sten tried. Other strategists purposefully neglect young potential voters. Author Mitchell points out that as an outsider, Bill Clinton cultivated the youth vote in his 1992 campaign--doing everything from playing sax on Arsenio Hall to talking about his underwear on MTV. But as 1996 approached, Mitchell says, the incumbent viewed young voters as too volatile and, instead, courted senior citizens with his defense of Medicare. Similar decisions are made in local races. Look at the May primary in Oregon's 1st Congressional District, says Lavey. "Ask any of the candidates where they put their ad dollars," he says. "They all were aimed at [TV] programs that were speaking to a 35-and-older demographic. If you have a choice between running an ad during Matlock or Melrose Place, it's a no-brainer." In a larger context, both political parties also deserve blame, taking money supposedly earmarked for boosting voter turnout and using it instead to aid individual candidates ("Rogue of the Week," page 13). With such disincentives at work, the communication gap between potential voters and candidates becomes self-perpetuating, says Maureen Kirk, 33, executive director of OSPIRG. If young voters believe no one is talking to them, they feel alienated. By sitting out the election, they only increase the chances that candidates won't contact them in the future. The psychological distance they feel from politics only grows. "As a result," Kirk says, "you see a vicious cycle." Gen-X activists are catching on. After seeing the latest turnout numbers, young politicians such as Sten are now acknowledging the problem. "It is something that I and other candidates need to work on," he says. "We need to regroup. I know X-PAC is working on some ideas." Armed with the latest data, X-PAC--the Portland-based group that calls itself an "action committee for the next political generation"--is launching an anti-apathy program that kicks off with voter drives at some of this summer's biggest local concerts. Then X-PAC hopes to get volunteers from Wieden & Kennedy--the Portland agency that crafts ads for Nike and Miller beer--to help create a pro-vote, go-vote message to be used in radio spots, posters, flyers and even a 'zine version of a Voters' Pamphlet. "We want young people to realize there's no reason we can't be more politically powerful than senior citizens," says Sam Chase, chairman of X-PAC's elections committee. "After all, there are more of us and we're going to be around longer." Mitchell maintains that the young activists in X-PAC, like young candidates around the country, are at the leading edge of a nascent movement that will transform American politics. County Commission candidate Serena Cruz may offer concrete proof. Although Cruz, 30, did target the mailing of her campaign literature to frequent voters in her Northeast Portland district, her phone bankers called thousands of young people in the hope they could be rousted from their complacency. Cruz suspects those calls helped her pull off an upset and finish ahead of four older candidates with more name recognition. "We got feedback from people saying...they were glad they got a call, and they were going to vote." There are other signs that young people will vote in greater numbers in the November general election, when as many as 11 initiatives--on issues such as clear-cutting, medical marijuana and state parks--will crowd that ballot. In 1994, the last general election that didn't feature a presidential race, 32 percent of Oregonians 18 to 34 years old voted. Still, radio host Kerr is not so optimistic. "Ours is a generation of such contradictions," he says. "We have this tendency to complain about what's wrong and how we're powerless, yet we never seek to empower ourselves politically. "I'm the biggest sinner," Kerr adds. While he and his co-host, Talisman, were busy talking politics in late May, they both neglected to vote. "I voted the year before," says Talisman. "But it didn't accomplish a damn thing." --Matthias Fripp, Nigel Jaquiss, Maureen O'Hagan and Karl Horeis contributed to this story. |
