Willamette Week| News| Politics

SIDEBAR:
SLACKERS, BUT NOT CYNICS:
Young Oregonians Are More Optimistic Than You Might Think.

WEB XTRA: the X-Pac 1998 Young Voter's Survey

Visit X-Pac online at http://www.xpac.org/

It's long been argued that if more young people voted, Oregon would look different. Now it's verified and quantified, with a new of survey of 300 young registered voters and a detailed analysis of the November turnout.

The study shows that young Oregonians strongly favored local ballot measures to spend $675 million on parks, community colleges and light rail.

All three measures were narrowly defeated. According to the study, if just 2 percent more young voters had marked their ballots, the $65 million measure to improve city parks would have passed. If an additional 3.4 percent had voted, the three Portland Community College campuses would be getting a $135 million facelift. And if voting among 18- to 34-year-olds in the tri-county area had increased by 18.5 percent, construction would be underway on a new $475 million light-rail line from Clackamas County to North Portland.

In other words, if young people had voted at the same rate as 40-year-old Oregonians, the region would look significantly different.

The findings of the study, conducted by X-PAC, a Portland group dedicated to increasing political participation among young people, don't shock political experts. "It's a half-duh," says pollster Tim Hibbitts. "Our own data shows that young people are more likely to support tax increases, while people over 55 are much more hostile to money measures."

But the X-PAC study does contain a few surprises. For instance, the survey indicates that young people are not as cynical about politics as you might think (See "Slackers, but Not Cynics," page 18), and some can be persuaded to vote--if asked to, although contemporary campaigns rarely address them.

"All these factors argue that X-PAC and others folks should keep pushing people to vote," says Portland City Commissioner Erik Sten, 31.

Make no mistake, though: The November turnout among 18- to 34-year-olds in the tri-county area was dismal. Just 27 percent of the eligible voters marked their ballots. That's compared with a 45 percent turnout for the overall population and a 63 percent rate for Oregonians 65 and older.

"That's a crappy turnout level," says Hibbitts.

"Pitiful," admits Sten.

It is, however, a vast improvement over the 9 percent turnout among young tri-county voters in the May primary. And it's no worse than experts expected. According to Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate in Washington, D.C., young Oregonians voted at a slightly higher rate four years ago; and the small decline (approximately 2 percent) in their 1998 participation mirrored the overall drop in voter turnout in Oregon.

To some extent, the lower turnout in 1998 could be anticipated. This year, even the high-profile races were about as exciting as reruns of Matlock. Gov. John Kitzhaber toyed with GOP challenger Bill Sizemore, who garnered just 31 percent of the vote--the lowest total by a major-party gubernatorial candidate since 1942. The U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Ron Wyden and sacrificial lamb John Lim was just as lopsided, with Lim snagging a paltry 34 percent of the vote.

Turnout among young people would have been even lower were it not for ballot measures concerning medical marijuana, timber clear-cutting and state parks. Those measures had strong appeal to young people and probably brought out some usually disinterested young Oregonians, says Portland pollster Lisa Grove Donovan.

But it doesn't appear that those ballot measures dramatically increased turnout. The X-PAC survey shows that young Oregonians consider education, abortion rights, transportation and gun control to be more important issues than medical marijuana. Surprisingly, more young Oregonians said they supported the "war on drugs" than medical marijuana.

So how can turnout be improved when candidates and ballot measures fail to excite young people?

Experts say many people don't vote until they get married, have kids and buy a house; then they get involved because they see how politics affect their lives. That's why turnout for 35-year-olds is twice as high as it is for 22-year-olds.

Before they settle down, young Oregonians say they're simply too busy--or uninformed--to vote. At least that's the reason 68 percent of respondents gave X-PAC for not voting. Only 11 percent said they didn't vote because they felt they couldn't make a difference; only 7 percent said more modern campaign techniques, such as Internet campaigning or MTV-style ads, would encourage them to vote.

Gans, of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, cites even deeper impediments. He says public schools need to do a better job of teaching civics and current events; more parents need to set an example by voting; parties must rebuild their grassroots; and the media should be less cynical and more public-minded.

Without those sweeping reforms, however, there are still ways to get a rise out of young voters. One is with fresh candidates like former wrestler Jesse "the Body" Ventura, who was elected governor of Minnesota thanks to what pollster Donovan calls "the 25-year-old frat-boy vote." Another is by asking young voters to participate. It doesn't happen very often because campaigns tend to concentrate their limited resources on the most likely voters--namely those over 34.

"I've never worked on a campaign that targeted young voters unless we were desperate and throwing long," says Donovan, who polled for three winning congressional campaigns in 1998.

But the X-PAC study indicates that some voters can be coaxed to vote with minimal effort. Operating on a budget of just $35,000--small change to most congressional campaigns--X-PAC launched a voter drive this fall.

The group hung posters in Portland clubs and restaurants, got a public-service announcement on 202 local movie screens and ran ads in local papers. The X-PAC voter drive was covered by local radio, TV and newspapers.

Perhaps most important, X-PAC created a 'zine-style voters guide that was mailed to more than 30,000 households in which young voters lived.

The 'zines made an impression, according to X-PAC's survey of young Oregonians. Of the 80 people who recalled receiving the X-PAC brochure, 81 percent said it was helpful. A small number of those people--13 percent--said the brochure played a part in getting them to vote.

"X-PAC probably had an effect on a smattering of voters," says Hibbitts. "I would encourage them to continue. It's an evolving process. It's not like they're not voting one day, then they are the next."

How can groups like X-PAC make a more effective pitch?

Scolding doesn't work, says Donovan. Neither will reminding young people of their civic duty to vote. It's a tough audience. Unlike their parents, they didn't grow up with political heroes like Bobby Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr. The only presidents today's 18-year-olds have known are Ronald Reagan, George Bush and Bill Clinton--not exactly the kind of firebrands who inspire people to the ramparts.

Like all Americans, young voters also tend to be selfish, says Donovan. "Unless you can demonstrate what's in it for them, they won't participate," she maintains.

The best strategy, she says, is to instill a sense of community in people.

That's where the survey results regarding the three local ballot measures come in handy. Now X-PAC activists can use their survey results to show young people how they can build the community they want--if they vote.

At the same time, X-PAC can remind young people that they truly are a sleeping political giant. In the tri-county area, the number of 18- to 34-year-olds exceeds the population of people 50 and over (301,348 to 297,655). If they voted at a higher rate, young people could have more clout than the powerful senior citizen population, which is often courted by candidates.

"There's a lot of reason for hope," says Sten. "All we've got to do is remind people a couple times to vote. That seems reasonably doable."

But while Hibbitts welcomes more young voters, he warns against coddling them. "Our ancestors would have never made it across this country if they'd waited for someone to tell them to form pioneer trains," says Hibbitts. "I don't think the system ought to go get young people. That's a little self-absorbed. It's their responsibility as citizens to get involved."

SLACKERS, BUT NOT CYNICS Young Oregonians Are More Optimistic Than You Might Think.

Despite their poor turnout at elections, most young people think voting is important. X-PAC's survey of 300 registered young voters shows that 99 percent think they should vote. Even among a subgroup of 69 non-voters, 88 percent said they should vote.

The survey shows that young Oregonians are not as frustrated with the political process as you might expect. Most say they enjoy a high quality of life, feel the state is headed in the right direction and think politicians represent their views (see chart below).

They're also pretty well informed: Most said they got a good high-school education in civics and government; 86 percent could name the mayor or Portland; and 72 percent could name one of Oregon's U.S. senators (even though the two have a combined tenure of just four years in the Senate).

Young Oregonians also grade politicians pretty highly: The vast majority of respondents gave candidates a grade of "B" or "C."

That's not to say, however, that the 300 young survey respondents are naive: Only 27 percent of them think politicians tell the truth most of the time.

--Bob Young

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Willamette Week | originally published January 27, 1999