The Hawthorne Bridge

by CHRIS LYDGATE
clydgate@wweek.com

If it wasn't obvious before the Ash Wednesday quake, it is now: The real question is not "if" but "when."

State seismic experts reckon there is a 10 percent chance that a cataclysmic quake (magnitude 8 or higher on the Richter scale) will strike the Cascadia Subduction Zone in any given 50-year period.

Even a much smaller temblor could take a toll. If it struck the Portland Hills Fault, a quake of magnitude 6.5 (far gentler than the Ash Wednesday quake) would probably kill 2,000 to 3,000 people and cause billions of dollars in property damage, according to seismologist Franz Rad, chairman of the civil engineering department at PSU.

Are we ready? "No. No, no, no! Noooh, no, no," says state Sen. Peter Courtney. "The city's not ready, the state's not ready, the West Coast's not ready. It's becoming very clear to me we're all playing Russian roulette on this."

One of the players spinning the loaded chamber is the City of Portland.

It's well known that the biggest potential threat to human life in a Rose City quake comes from the city's 1,800 unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings--prewar brick-and-mortar structures.

"Unreinforced masonry buildings are hands-down the worst hazards in an earthquake--unless they've been upgraded," says Mike Hagerty, chief engineer of the city's Office of Planning and Development Review.

PSU engineers reckon that a 6.5 quake would leave more than half the county's URM buildings with moderate or extensive damage and dozens of buildings in complete rubble.

Yet people who work and live in those buildings have no way to gauge their danger. That's because the city imposes no requirement on building owners to inform occupants about potential earthquake hazards. In fact, the city hasn't even identified high-risk buildings--although other entities, from the city of San Francisco to the Portland Public School District, have demonstrated that such an analysis is feasible.

During the past three weeks, WW has been reviewing a list of all the city's URM buildings, obtained through a public-records request. We also dug through several dozen seismic analyses buried in bureaucratic file cabinets.

We found that although there is widespread agreement that many Portland buildings pose a potential hazard, there is marked reluctance--on the part of engineers, bureaucrats and emergency planners--to identify specific examples.

One obstacle is technical. Seismology is a notoriously uncertain science, and predicting the damage to any particular building especially so. Many variables come into play: the magnitude and duration of the quake, the soil, the design and construction of the building, how well it has been maintained and its age. One building may escape unscathed, while its next-door neighbor, despite similar construction, may collapse.

But much of the reluctance has more to do with politics than seismology.

"If we were to say the PGE building is unsafe, or Nike Town, then it would be a problem for us because they might sue us," says Yumei Wang, director of the state's Earthquake and Landslide Programs.

"I don't think it's in the best interest to go pointing fingers," says PSU engineering professor Carol Hasenberg. "The building owners will say, 'Forget it, we don't want to be demonized.'"

The suggestion that potential hazards be publicly identified sends the building-owners lobby into a shudder of dismay. "We do not support the idea of putting stickers on buildings," says Robin White, executive vice president of the Building and Office Management Association. "It would mislead people more than give them real information."

Nonetheless, other cities have taken a more aggressive stance. In 1986, San Francisco mandated that its 2,068 URMs undergo seismic upgrade by 2006. So far, two-thirds have been completely or partially retrofitted.

In order to illustrate the scope and magnitude of the problem, WW has selected seven structures from the long list of those that may pose a hazard to their occupants in case of a major quake.

We're not saying they are dangerous. But we are saying that they--and all unreinforced masonry buildings--are potentially dangerous. Anyone who works, lives, or plays in them is entitled to ask the owners about preparations for disaster.

MULTNOMAH COUNTY COURTHOUSE
1021 SW 4th Ave.
Built 1911
Floors: 8 + basement

Cops and crooks, judges and jurors, lawyers and litigants: The courthouse is the Portland legal world's ground zero--in more ways than one. According to a seismic analysis performed in 1991, the building's walls are incapable of standing up to a major earthquake. "Building collapse then becomes a likely event," the report states. "The lateral strength of the [courthouse] is far less than appropriate for all except the smallest earthquakes."

Roughly 2,000 to 5,000 people enter the courthouse on a typical weekday. "It's a tremendous liability if an earthquake were to occur," says engineer Dan Brown, the county's director of facilities and property management. Retrofitting the building would cost about $40 million. So far, the county has failed to come up with the money.

CLEVELAND HIGH SCHOOL
Southeast 26th Avenue and Powell Boulevard
Built: 1926
Floors: 3

Over the years, thousands of Portlanders have paid their dues at Cleveland. Few of them realize their alma mater is rated as "high structural seismic risk." In fact, out of hundreds of buildings in the Portland Public School system, Cleveland is currently rated as posing the highest risk to the largest number of students, teachers and administrators. According to a seismic analysis performed in 1998, the school's original building--which includes classrooms, the auditorium and the old gymnasium--can withstand only 1 percent of the expected forces in a major quake. "Our top priority is getting the students out safely," says Pam Brown of the Portland Public School District. Cleveland is slated for a retrofit this summer.

MONTGOMERY COURT
1802 SW 10th Ave.
Built 1920
Floors: 4 + basement

Sad to say, the ivory tower is wobbly. This PSU dormitory, home to 145 students, is one of several campus buildings that pose a potential seismic hazard. According to a 1997 seismic analysis, the building's structure "is not capable of adequately resisting earthquake ground motion" and exhibits "significant weaknesses," in particular a lack of devices to keep the walls from collapsing.

PSU administrators hope to demolish the dorm eventually, plus others (including the Adeline, the Blackstone, the King Albert, the St. Helens and the Stratford), which together house nearly 400 students. But right now they don't have enough money to draw up a priority list, according to Dick Piekenbrock, campus architect. PSU is not alone: Reed College's Eliot Hall also could pose a hazard in a quake.

CLINTON STREET THEATER
2524 SE Clinton St.
Built 1913
Floors: 2

Portland wouldn't be the same without the Clinton Street Theater, epicenter of the cinematic revolution for at least 20 years (or as long as it's been screening The Rocky Horror Picture Show.) But based on its unreinforced masonry, age, poor condition, vertical irregularities and non-structural falling hazards, if the unimaginable occurs, the Clinton Street could stage a rocky horror of its own. Besides the theater, the building houses a salon, a bar, a vintage clothing store and 10 apartments. "We don't know the nature and extent of the problems at the Clinton Street Theater," says owner Dick Helzer, a Beaverton lawyer. "We're afraid the necessary work would mean demolishing the building. But it's stood up for 100 years. How much more assurance can you get?"

U.S. CUSTOMS BUILDING
220 NW 8th Ave.
Built 1898
Floors: 4

Overlooking the North Park Blocks, this stately example of neoclassical architecture now houses roughly 250-300 employees of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The federal General Services Administration, which manages the building, was not willing to share its seismic analysis without jumping through bureaucratic hoops. But apparently the situation is dire enough that the GSA is trying to kick its tenants out by the end of the year. Upgrading the building could cost up to $10 million, according to GSA public information officer Bill Dubray. "It's fair to say we are concerned with this building," he told WW.

GOVERNOR BUILDING
404 SW 2nd Ave.
Built 1906
Floors: 5

There's no mistaking the faint aroma of mildew and despair that permeates the lobby of the Governor Building. Long a haven for low-rent offices (including Second Avenue Records and some very fine freelance writers), it was sold two years ago to real-estate powerhouse Schnitzer Northwest, which intends to demolish the building and replace it with a 20-story office tower. Without a formal seismic analysis, it's impossible to know how the building would fare in a quake. But based on its unreinforced masonry, its age, height, footprint and non-structural falling hazards, two Portland engineers contacted by WW said the building could pose a potential hazard. According to Traci Gedlich, the leasing agent at Norris Beggs, however, the Governor "did great" in the last temblor.

HAWTHORNE BRIDGE
Built 1910

When the Hawthorne Bridge reopened in April 1999 after an agonizing 13-month facelift, Portland held a blowout party to celebrate. So it may come as some surprise that despite spending $22 million to paint and renovate the bridge, Multnomah County did nothing to strengthen it in case of an earthquake. The reason, of course, is money. "It's kind of a hard thing to balance," says Multnomah County spokesman Mike Pullen. "Do you make the sidewalks wider or do you strengthen it for an earthquake that may never happen?"

From an engineering standpoint, the Hawthorne presents two major problems: First, a quake could fracture the bridge's bearings, which connect the main truss to the supporting towers. Then there's the "Godzilla scenario," in which a big jolt sets the bridge's massive counterweights (850,000 pounds each) swaying like a pair of gigantic metronomes, climaxing in an epic crescendo of destruction.

In fact, all six of the county's Willamette bridges (Broadway, Burnside, Hawthorne, Morrison, Sauvie Island and Sellwood) pose a potential quake hazard: The county has plans to strengthen them, including a full upgrade of the Burnside Bridge, at a cost of $53 million over the next 20 years.

--David Shafer contributed to this report.