Republicans Tried to Make Measure 101 About Gov. Kate Brown. It Didn’t Work Very Well.

The "no" campaign targeted the incumbent—but even voters in challenger Knute Buehler's home county ignored that message.

Rep. Julie Parrish

Anybody who read the voters' pamphlet for the Jan. 23 special election on Measure 101 could get the impression that Gov. Kate Brown, the Democratic incumbent, was on the ballot.

Consider just a few excerpts from statements submitted by the "no" campaign, which was led by state Rep. Julie Parrish (R-West Linn), who works as a political consultant when not legislating.

"On top of all the new costs for students, state lawmakers and Governor Brown decided to tax student health plans!"

"This year, Governor Kate Brown and the Oregon Legislature passed new taxes on healthcare plans and hospitals. The taxes are effectively 'sales taxes.'"

"It's shameful that Governor Kate Brown and lawmakers who supported these taxes would balance the budget on the backs of Oregon families and small business owners."

"Hold Kate Brown and the Oregon Health Authority Accountable for Medicaid Mismanagement!"

In a Jan. 4 statement to WW explaining why he was a "no" vote on Measure 101, state Rep. Knute Buehler (R-Bend), an orthopedic surgeon well-versed in the complex economics underlying Medicaid, also took a swipe at the governor.

"During the past three years I've grown increasingly concerned, alarmed even, by the failed leadership, mismanagement and cavalier attitude by state health care managers and Governor Brown toward the funding and delivery of Oregon's Medicaid program," Buehler said.

None of this worked.

As of Tuesday morning, the measure is passing 62 percent to 38 percent with nearly all votes counted. That means that the Medicaid funding package approved last year by the Oregon Legislature will remain in place.

The "yes" campaign, backed by large hospital systems, insurers and public employee unions outspent the "no" side more than 30 to 1, which is a reflection of how valuable the federal matching dollars that Measure 101 imperiled are, and in part, the lack of support for the "no" message.

To the extent Republicans tried to make the measure a proxy for the November governor's election, the results augur poorly for them.

In Buehler's home county of Deschutes, where Republicans hold a slim (1.4 percentage point) registration advantage over Democrats, the measure passed by eight percentage points.

The results were similar in other counties where the GOP needs to shine to win a statewide election. In Marion County, where Democrats have a razor-thin registration (.6 of a percentage point), the measure passed by 10 points. And in Parrish's home county, Clackamas, where Democrats now have a 5.4 point registration advantage, the measure passed by 16 points.

All that may just say that non-affiliated voters, who outnumber Republicans, lean left. Or it may be a reflection of the mismatch in campaign spending. No matter the explanation, the attempt to use Measure 101 to sow chaos in the February legislative session—the likely result of a "no" vote—or to affect the governor's race has to be seen as a failure.

Parrish, the architect of the "no" campaign, says the result is a not a reflection of tactics, including a focus on Brown, but a reflection of a confusing ballot title and getting vastly outspent—she thinks it will end up being more than 35 to 1.

"We tried to blow the whistle," Parrish says. "We didn't win. We'll keep trying."

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