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Home · Articles · News · News · ODOT'S PEAK AT THE FUTURE
July 27th, 2005 ADRIAN CHEN | News
 

ODOT'S PEAK AT THE FUTURE

State report forecasts the end of cheap oil - and it could be soon.

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In theory, there are few things less terrifying than an Oregon Department of Transportation report detailing a pilot program to tax motorists by mileage driven.

But tucked into the 55-page report on the possibility of trading taxes by the gallon for taxes by the mile (see "Back-Seat Big Brother," May 25, 2005) is one passage that-if you like highway travel and the American Way of Life-is more than a little frightening.

"Some petroleum industry experts predict that before 2010 the world production of conventional oil will crest and enter a permanent decline," the report states under the heading "Peak Oil."

Peak oil is the theory that, due to a finite supply of petroleum, the world's production must soon fall.

With rising gas prices and China's growing petroleum demand, peak oil has become an increasingly hot topic. Books and websites declare the end of the oil era, while Big Oil says the peak could be at least 100 years away.

The ODOT report released this month takes a more pessimistic tone. "There's no controversy over the idea of a peak," says the report's author, James Whitty. "The question is: When will it happen?"

After the peak, the report says, increasingly fuel-efficient vehicles will render the 24-cent-per gallon gas tax useless to fund road repairs. (Read the report at www.oregon.gov/ODOT/HWY/OIPP/ruftf_reports.shtml.)

What the report doesn't address is the theory's bleaker side: Competition for dwindling oil reserves could lead to nuclear war, economic catastrophe or-if you're a real pessimist-the end of civilization. By then, potholes might be the last thing on people's minds.

 
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07.26.2005 at 09:00 Reply
Peak OilI haven't seen anyone come out and say peak oil is 100 years out, even big oil. The USGS is the most optimistic at 30-40 years. Chevron has just launched an ad campaign saying the end of cheap oil is upon us.—Leslie Ann M. Kutz

 

07.26.2005 at 09:00 Reply
The bigger and more appropriate question is...When will demand outstrip supply? http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/—indy

 

07.26.2005 at 09:00 Reply
"Big Oil" on the peak ... not 100 years awayNot all Big Oil says the Peak will be in 100 years. Check out the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (www.peakoi.net) . Here's an article for you, if it fits:Big Oil says the peak could be at least 100 years away.—Elise Houghton

 

07.26.2005 at 09:00 Reply
Peak Oil...The joke's on you America. Big Oil is not saying Peak Oil is 100 years away... Big Oil is saying we've hit Peak NOW! and in fact you're going to be sitting on E in less than 30 years. Don't believe me? Check for yourself www.willyoujoinus.com (brought to you by Chevron) oh and what's does BP stand for now? Nope, it's not British Petroleum anymore... Yup, America you're screwed and you're government doens't want you to know.—Stryker

 

07.27.2005 at 09:00 Reply
Peak OilTHANK YOU for acknowledging the single most important issue in the world. Industrial civilization as we know it WILL collapse, it's just a matter of WHEN. We should all be very leery of gas taxes. If they are too low, they don't pay for road maintenance. If they're too high, government gets addicted. We wonder why there's so little political will to reduce consumption.We need to force our legislators to WAKE UP! Our region needs to batten down the hatches, and that means getting off the oil habit! Taking a big cut from the dealer isn't helping us get off our addiction.—Lisa Mann

 

 
 

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