November 2nd, 2010 12:00 am | by MARK ZUSMAN News | Posted In: Politics

At This Point in the Evening, It Looks Good for Kitzhaber

John Kitzhaber

It’s way too early to call the Oregon governor’s race. But since we are sitting around, bored of Wolf Blitzer, we’ll offer this bit of analysis: Despite the Republican wave rolling over America, supporters of Democratic candidate John Kitzhaber have reason to be cautiously optimistic.

Why? As of 30 minutes ago, almost 100,000 more Democrats than Republicans had voted in Oregon. Assuming most Republicans vote for Chris Dudley and most Democrats vote for Kitzhaber, this bodes well for Kitzhaber.

Even if you assume those who are unaffiliated or registered with third parties vote for Dudley by a margin of 10 percentage points, that only swings another 25,000 votes in Dudley’s favor, not nearly enough to win the governorship. It’s early, of course, but a promising sign for Kitzhaber and his supporters.

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