May 8th, 2012 | by WW Editorial Staff News | Posted In: PDX Votes, City Hall

UPDATED: Latest Poll Confirms Smith's Momentum in Mayor's Race

murmurs_smith_3745Rep. Jefferson Smith
A new poll in the Portland mayor’s race shows that state Rep. Jefferson Smith (D-Portland) is surging in the campaign’s final days.

The survey suggests city commissioner Charlie Hales and Eileen Brady have gained little ground with voters since last month.

The SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU and released Monday afternoon shows Brady with 28 percent, Smith with 27 and former City Commissioner Charlie Hales with 25. The top three contenders in the May 15 primary are all within the poll’s 4.2 percent of margin of error—which means this race is essentially even.

The survey shows 20 percent of respondents are undecided or will vote for another candidate.

UPDATED: The Oregonian and KGW released a poll late Monday that is at odds with other recent media surveys. The poll shows Brady has fallen to third place, and is running third among female voters—a result inconsistent with other polling. The poll shows Hales has 29 percent, Smith has 28 and Brady is at 16 percent.

The SurveyUSA poll, with more recent results, does show important trends since its previous polls, done in April and February. The numbers show Hales’ numbers are flat. (He had 22 percent in the SurveyUSA April poll, a statistically meaningless difference from the poll released today.)

The numbers suggest Brady also has hit a wall. The April SurveyUSA poll had Brady at 34 percent, and 25 percent in February. Her decline, from 34 to 28 percent in a matter of weeks, is still within the statistical margin of error.

Still, the 28 percent in today’s poll suggests Brady is making little or no progress with voters despite spending more than $1 million on her campaign. (Hales’ and Smith’s campaigns—combined—have spent $945,000.)

Smith's numbers show the biggest change. He registered just 10 percent in February, and 15 in April.

His rising numbers track with last week’s DHM Research poll conducted for OPB and Fox 12 that has Smith at 20 percent.

If no candidate gets a majority of the votes May 15, the top two finishers will go into a runoff in the November election.

The SurveyUSA poll includes responses 563 likely voters between May 4 and May 7.

 
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