New Poll Shows Hales Up, Brady Down, Smith Second In Portland Mayoral Race (Updated)

A new poll by DHM Research shows Portland mayoral candidate Charlie Hales leading Eileen Brady and Jefferson Smith by a wider margin.

KPTV and OPB News, which commissioned the poll, have published the results on their websites.

The results, which show Smith steadily gaining share as Brady lags, show similar trends as an Oregonian/KGW poll released last week. But a SurveyUSA poll also released last week showed the top candidates in an effective tie. 

The outlier in this new poll is Hales' lead, at 32 percent.

The top two vote-getters in tomorrow's primary election advance to the November general election (unless by some miracle one candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote).

On its corporate Twitter account, DHM is going so far as to call tomorrow's primary for Hales and Smith:

More info to come on #pdxmayor. Bold prediction based on data: @HalesforMayor & @jeffersondsmith survive

This may prove premature. Many voters remain undecided, and as of this morning, only 17 percent of Multnomah County voters had returned their ballots, according to the Oregon Secretary of State's office.

Here is a table by KPTV comparing the new poll's results to a DHM poll last month:

Candidate	Apr. ‘12	May ‘12
Total Charlie Hales	25%	32%
Charlie Hales	23%	29%
Lean Hales	2%	3%
Total Eileen Brady	23%	16%
Eileen Brady	20%	15%
Lean Brady	3%	1%
Total Jefferson Smith	20%	24%
Jefferson Smith	18%	21%
Lean Smith	2%	2%
Other	6%	8%
Undecided	28%	21%

The poll also shows incumbent City Commissioner Amanda Fritz maintaining her lead over her main challenger, state Rep. Mary Nolan (D-Portland), 33 percent to 25 percent.

Keep watching this post for updates and additional context.