Why Oregon Will Beat Michigan State

The Oregon Ducks find themselves underdogs for the first time since 2011 as they face Michigan State in a battle of top 10 teams in East Lansing, Michigan.

By JOHN LOCANTHI

With all due respect to last week's scrimmage against Eastern Washington, the Oregon Ducks' season begins in earnest tomorrow versus Michigan State. The Spartans (11-2 last year, with both losses coming to teams that played in the national championship game) are looking to avenge last season's blowout loss to Oregon. Sparty's star defensive coordinator may have left for Pittsburgh, but scowlin' head coach Mark Dantonio still prowls from the sidelines. They had the lead at halftime, but they let it get away. Or rather, Oregon's wide receivers flew right past them.

The Ducks, on the other hand, are in a state of transition. Graduate transfer Vernon Adams is the stop-gap solution to replace the greatest player in school history, Marcus Mariota. The team also needed to replace its playmaking stars in the secondary (Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Erick Dargan and Troy Hill). While the offense cruised to a smooth 700-plus yards against Eastern Washington, the young secondary allowed an EWU receiver to set Autzen Stadium receiving records. He also caught three touchdowns.

So Michigan State is the obvious pick, right? Well, uh…

Passing yard allowed after week 1
Source: the NCAA

And really that’s only the beginning of it. I looked through the Rivals.com database for Michigan State’s starting wide receivers. It turns out not one of them even had an offer from the Eastern Washington Eagles. [Michigan State WR offers.] 

Rivals.com

You also have to factor in the Oregon coaching staff’s impressive track record of not being able to defend the air raid offense. Be it a powerhouse like Eastern Washington or a Big Sky also-ran like the Washington State Cougars, the Ducks seem to give up at least 400 yards by design.

The bigger concern for Oregon is its quarterback Vernon Adams, last seen leaving the game after one of his former teammates at EWU tried to decapitate him.

Even without star wide receiver Darren Carrington—who is suspended half the season because the NCAA thinks drugs are bad, mmkay?—Oregon’s receiving core might be the best in the country this season. Spartans quarterback Connor Cook returns after 340 yards in the game last year, but Oregon’s secondary made some key plays to halt drives. Michigan State’s experienced secondary did not. And Sparty is breaking in some younglings in the defensive backfield this season, much like Oregon. Can these inexperienced defensive backs preventing Oregon's receivers from running right past them again? 

Timing is key
Source: FOX

Well, timing is key most of the time
Source: FOX 

The Spartans defense did do an impressive job of shutting down Directional Michigan's vaunted running game in the first week of the season. It did a fair job in slowing down Oregon's ground game last year. But stopping the run and forcing your opponent to pass only works when you're also able to cover receivers.

Michigan State had a 27-18 lead in the third quarter before Oregon remembered it was way more talented and won 46-27. But that was last year. Marcus Mariota is gone. (Although, the Ducks do still have the highest projected NFL draft pick in the game in defensive end DeForest Buckner.) You don’t want to read too much into last year’s game. You can only read slightly more into either team’s opening game. So without any further ado, I will do both: the Michigan State Spartans will get their yards, but Oregon will win a tight, hard-fought game.

Prediction: Oregon 77, Michigan State 0

WWeek 2015

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