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Here's the state's long-awaited economic forecast (PDF). And in anticipation of Gov. Ted Kulongoski's speech this afternoon at City Club of Portland on "Weathering the Crisis," here are some of the state report's lowlights for us to weather in Oregon:
more—The first quarter of 2009 marks the fifth consecutive quarter of job losses. The annualized drop of 8.2 percent is the largest quarterly employment decline since the second quarter of 1980.
—The unemployment rate for March 2009 reached 12.1 percent, matching the highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate during the early 1980's recession. With more job losses likely this year, the unemployment rate will continue to rise.
—OEA (Office of Economic Analysis – Oregon) forecasts a decline of 6.5 percent in total employment for the second quarter of 2009.
—The US economy is now in the deepest post WWII recession. Oregon is almost there with this recession starting to rival the 1980-1982 recessionary period. Our economies have experienced financial crises in the past, but the breadth of this one is the worst since the Great Depression.
—After adjustments for several new laws related to expenditure cuts and revenue increases, the May projections result in a negative ending balance of $351.3 million for the 2007-09 biennium. The protracted slowdown will push still further downward relative to the March forecast in the 2009-11 biennium. The forecast for total General Fund revenue during 2009-11 was reduced by $532.5 million relative to March.
Sounds like there's a lot of crisis for the governor to talk about this afternoon (We'll report back later on what he says.)
WWeek 2015