State Sen. Shemia Fagan grabbed the lead in the Democratic primary for secretary of state as Oregon's larger counties processed their remaining ballots.
Fagan's Senate colleague Mark Hass (D-Beaverton) held a lead of about 10,000 votes most of Tuesday evening. But throughout Tuesday, Fagan inched toward Hass, passing him late this afternoon to assume a lead of 2,729 votes.
Oregon has a history of late ballots breaking toward the more progressive candidate. Fagan is running to Hass' left and is surfing that wave, particularly in Multnomah County, where Hass enjoyed a large early lead.
His lead looked strong enough that several outlets, including WW and KGW, said he was likely to win. The Oregonian called the race in his favor.
But the picture changed early this evening, with Fagan taking a lead that looks substantial with a relatively small percentage of votes remaining to be counted—but as we've learned, it would be a mistake to forecast any outcome until the votes are all counted.