State Sen. Shemia Fagan grabbed the lead in the Democratic primary for secretary of state as Oregon's larger counties processed their remaining ballots.
Fagan's Senate colleague Mark Hass (D-Beaverton) held a lead of about 10,000 votes most of Tuesday evening. But throughout Tuesday, Fagan inched toward Hass, passing him late this afternoon to assume a lead of 2,729 votes.
Oregon has a history of late ballots breaking toward the more progressive candidate. Fagan is running to Hass' left and is surfing that wave, particularly in Multnomah County, where Hass enjoyed a large early lead.
His lead looked strong enough that several outlets, including WW and KGW, said he was likely to win. The Oregonian called the race in his favor.
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But the picture changed early this evening, with Fagan taking a lead that looks substantial with a relatively small percentage of votes remaining to be counted—but as we've learned, it would be a mistake to forecast any outcome until the votes are all counted.