Surprised by Portland’s Election Results? John Horvick Can Explain.

It all makes sense in hindsight.

Portlanders celebrate the presidential election result on Nov. 7. (Trevor Gagnier)
By Aaron Mesh

WW presents "Distant Voices," a daily video interview for the era of social distancing. Our reporters are asking Portlanders what they're doing during quarantine.

These are not banner days for political pollsters.

The polling industry is getting clobbered in the press for setting expectations sky high for Democrats, who then endured a nail-biting week waiting to see if Joe Biden would scrape by President Donald Trump, even as hopes of securing a congressional majority dwindled.

Closer to home, John Horvick had his own set of surprising results to contend with.

Horvick runs DHM Research, the Portland polling firm that conduct the few election surveys this town sees. DHM was behind the August poll showing challenger Sarah Iannarone leading incumbent Mayor Ted Wheeler by 11 points. It also released an October poll showing a Multnomah County Library bond poised to fail.

In the event, Iannarone lost by 5 points, and the library bond cruised to victory.

We asked Horvick what to make of those results. He says they are understandable in hindsight. In this interview, he explains why. Hint: It's advertising.

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