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The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis released its quarterly revenue forecast this morning. Unsurprisingly, the news was bleak: Economists Mark McMullen and Josh Lehner told lawmakers revenue will be down $2.7 billion (about 11 percent) from the numbers they forecast in March.
Here a quick rundown. And here's a more detailed explanation, including a description of the state's robust reserves going into the pandemic.
Gov. Kate Brown is now likely to call the Legislature into a special session to cut agency budgets to reflect the new economic reality. Brown had earlier asked state agencies to begin preparing to cut their budgets as much as 17 percent, so today's news is not a surprise to them.
House Speaker Tina Kotek (D-Portland) said the forecast was in line with her expectations.
"Today's challenging forecast was expected given the devastating toll the coronavirus pandemic has taken on the Oregon and national economies. The state will rebalance its budget carefully and strategically," Kotek said in a statement.
"We must remember that budgets are not just numbers on a spreadsheet. Budgets are about people, our communities, and our collective well-being. We need to take the lessons learned from the Great Recession and do more to protect vulnerable Oregonians and rebuild an economy that promotes success for everyone.
"Fortunately, our state is in a far better financial position than it was at the start of the Great Recession. We have strong reserves that should be tapped early to avoid additional damage to our economy. I also believe increased bonding for public infrastructure will help to jump-start the economy and put people back to work.
"Together, Oregon will survive this challenge and thrive again soon."