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With less than a week to go until the Nov. 8 general election, ballots are trickling in: Fewer than 20% of voters had cast their ballots as of Oct. 31.
That’s not surprising since ballots in recent election cycles have tended to come in during the final two days—a trend that will be amplified by the new law allowing ballots postmarked by Nov. 8 to be counted as well as those received by 8 pm on Election Day.
One notable finding so far: In the past five general elections, Republicans turned out at a higher rate than Democrats by an average of eight-tenths of a percentage point. So far, however, Republican turnout for the Nov. 8 election is 1.9 points higher than Democratic turnout.
Pollster John Horvick of DHM Research says that’s counterintuitive, given that Democrats urged voters in 2020 to fill out their ballots early, while Republicans cast doubt on the validity of vote by mail. “It’s notable that Republicans are turning out early,” Horvick says.
