Wu Who?

Republicans targeting U.S. Rep. David Wu (D-Ore.) for defeat in November got a lift this week from 3,000 miles away.

Democrats in Massachusetts were in danger of losing the Senate seat the late Ted Kennedy held for 47 years. Whatever the outcome of the Jan. 19 special election there, Republicans in Oregon saw the close race as a sign this could be such a GOP-friendly year that it threatens another long-held D seat—Wu's.

Since voters elected Wu in 1998 as America's first Chinese-American congressman, the GOP has repeatedly failed to defeat him. But this year, two viable Republican candidates and a national shift among independents to the GOP are stoking hopes that Republicans could finally oust the six-term Democrat.

State GOP Chairman Bob Tiernan says Wu's perceived vulnerability has made the race a top priority at the Republican National Committee.

"It'll probably be one of the top 20 races in the country, based on what I'm being told," Tiernan says.

Both Democrats and Republicans have lost registered voters in Wu's district since President Obama took office last January, according to the secretary of state's office. Democrats lost 6,846 voters between January and November, the most recent statistics available. Republicans lost 4,410.

The count in November had 184,755 Democrats in Wu's district, versus 128,454 Republicans.

Those numbers have led a respected Washington, D.C.-based publication to label the district "solid D" and probably safe for Wu—despite his divorce in December and Wu's 2004 admission of "inexcusable behavior" in an alleged sexual assault on a college girlfriend in 1976.

"We could envision this becoming slightly competitive, but this is one district where Republicans have really lost ground in the last decade or so," says David Wasserman, House editor at The Cook Political Report. "It's very daunting for a Republican to be competitive here without some major negatives for [Wu]."

A proven fundraiser, Wu starts the race with a hefty money advantage. Donations from typical Washington power brokers like drug companies, defense contractors and banks—plus thousands of dollars from individual Asian-Americans around the country—leave Wu with more than $434,000 in the bank.

Wu has two viable Republican opponents, Tiernan says. Rob Cornilles, a sports-marketing consultant from Tualatin, has $114,000 on hand from individual donors. John Kuzmanich, a mortgage broker from unincorporated Washington County, has $23,000 in his coffers—more than half of it from his own pocket.

"I bring a background, a skill set and an understanding of the district that we haven't seen from our representative for many, many years," Cornilles says.

Kuzmanich says he'll bring energy and ideas from the conservative tea parties he attends.

"It appears that the party is lining up behind [Cornilles]," Kuzmanich says, "and the people and the grass roots are lining up behind me."

Republicans also hope to unseat first-term U.S. Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.), who's facing a challenge from state Rep. Scott Bruun (R-West Linn). The Cook Report labels that race as more competitive than Wu's, but still with a "likely D" win.

WWeek 2015