(The green line in the chart below shows the previous projection they've been using to convince federal officials; the red line are the new numbers Cortright uncovered):
The numbers echo a point that many critics have been making for years: that tolling I-5 while keeping I-205 toll-free is foolhardy, especially since driving overall is on the decline. (The Portland Mercury reported in 2010 that one independent expert called the plan "stupid.")
Cortright released his 12-page analysis (PDF) today, just hours before Gov. John Kitzhaber officially announced a Sept. 30 special session for Oregon lawmakers. The $2.8 billion Oregon-only CRC wasn't on the list of topics for the session, but WW has reported it could be squeezed in.
In the past, CRC officials have characterized the projected traffic on the new bridge by giving estimated annual counts of tripsâestimated in the millions.
The way the project gave its tolling and traffic predictions meant the
new study couldn't be compared with the CRC's Final Environmental Impact
Statement, which gave its predictions in average daily trips, Cortright
But the records Cortright turned up provide the average number of daily tripsâthe way CRC officials had presented it to federal officials in seeking approval for the project.
For example, the new numbers he uncovered show the new tolled CRC would see about 78,400 daily tripsâfar fewer than the more than 160,000 cars earlier predicted.
Meanwhile, the newly disclosed numbers say the I-205 will carry two and a half times as predicted earlier.
"Nobody really thinks in terms of millions of transactions per year," he tells WW
. "But if you say there are 138,000 cars a day using I-205, and weâre going to add 50,000âthat paints a pretty clear picture in peopleâs minds."
Maxing out I-205 (which reaches its saturation point at 210,000 daily trips; a point CDM Smith predicts it will hit in 2023) will jam up traffic to Portland International Airport, which Cortright argues is even more economically important and time-sensitive than I-5.
He also points out that CDM Smith has still not explained how the project will make the $1.3 billion in toll revenue it needs with such high levels of diversion.
His guess? Higher tolls.