Who Should You Believe, Donald Trump or the Oregon Employment Department?

Last night, President Donald J. Trump gave an uncharacteristically restrained speech, largely free from insults and invective.

But Trump painted a dire picture of the nation his predecessor left behind.

Here’s what he said about the economy:

Maybe.

Granted, Oregon is not entirely representative of the nation, and this state’s volatile economy is prone to lower lows and higher highs than most states. But Trump’s claims fly in the face of an extraordinary announcement just hours before his speech from the state Employment Department.

Oregon’s unemployment rate dropped to 4.3 percent in January, from 4.5 percent in December. This was the lowest unemployment rate since comparable records began in 1976.

The lowest rate in 41 years. That’s a long time.

But in a way, it’s not surprising that the state’s unemployment rate has reached record lows because the Employment Department says joblessness in Oregon has been declining for seven years—even before Trump won election.

Correlation is not causation but it’s worth noting that the decline in unemployment began shortly after Trump’s predecessor took office in January 2009.