Why the Thorns Might or Might Not Take Home Their Fourth Star

“This is our time,” the Rose City Riveters’ banner read. Deyna Castellanos certainly agreed.

It took all of three minutes for Castellanos to make her mark against the Houston Dash on Sunday, when she curled a beautiful distance shot around Dash goalkeeper Jane Campbell to put the Portland Thorns on the board. The Thorns went on to win 2–0, with midfielder Jessie Fleming doubling the score in the 35th minute.

And Castellanos’ shot means the Thorns play their next game in our house. The victory puts Portland in third place in the NWSL standings, so they’ll host the San Diego Wave in the first round of playoffs.

It’s the Thorns’ ninth consecutive playoff appearance (and a chance for their fourth championship title), but the energy around this year’s team is different from years past.

“It’s been a fun team to be a part of because of the people,” Fleming said after the Houston match. “The difficult moments have been made easier because we have such a wonderful group of people.”

She also talked about the tightness of this year’s standings: The Thorns could’ve finished as low as eighth in the table, depending on their performance against the Dash and how results shook out around the league.

Which is to say, this year’s title is anyone’s game (with the Kansas City Current being definite front-runners after dominating the regular season), especially in a single-match elimination format.

Here’s a breakdown of why the Thorns might be a year away, or why they could take their fourth star home.

Why it might not be Portland’s year

Conversations around this year’s Thorns tend to center on players who aren’t on the field. To some extent, that was inevitable after big retirements like Christine Sinclair, Becky Sauerbrunn and Meghan Klingenberg. Sophia Wilson and Olivia Wade-Katoa are sitting out 2025 on maternity leave; Morgan Weaver suffered a season-ending knee injury.

But the absences only compounded: Defenders Marie Müller and Nicole Payne were also ruled out due to ACL tears before the season kicked off, with rookie Caiya Hanks and midseason acquisition Julie Dufour also sustaining ACL injuries as the season wore on. (That’s not to mention the players Portland has lost to trades, like fan-favorite midfielder Hina Sugita and pacy winger Payton Linnehan.)

Talent and experience of all the above-mentioned players aside, the absences have left the Thorns barely roster compliant; their numbers have hovered around the minimum 22 players all season—a number that doesn’t allow for a full 11-vs.-11 team scrimmage if you factor in that three of those players are goalkeepers.

Portland couldn’t even fill a 20-player match day roster against Houston, with defender M.A. Vignola and forwards Pietra Tordin and Valerin Loboa out with injuries. Thorns head coach Rob Gale said the status of all three players is to be determined as the match gets closer.

The size of the squad also doesn’t allow for much player rotation, which can wear on a team, as Gale has brought up throughout the season.

That’s not to mention the other elephant in the room this year: Portland’s team is incredibly young—the youngest in the NWSL, in fact. Only three of the players on the Thorns’ 2022 championship-winning squad are active on the team this year.

The above isn’t helped by Portland’s inconsistency throughout the season. They can get results against some of the strongest teams in the NWSL—and can fall 2–1 to the then-last place Utah Royals. Their pattern of conceding early goals throughout the year hasn’t helped, either.

Portland has conceded first to San Diego, their first-round opponent, both times they’ve met this season before coming back for a 1–1 draw late in the match. Relying on late-game heroics is something that the Thorns will want to avoid—especially with their bare-bones squad.

If Portland gets past San Diego, they’ll face the winner of the Washington Spirit vs. Racing Louisville match before going up against the Kansas City side of the bracket. If they make it to the end, the firepower-heavy Current, who have beaten Portland twice this year, are the final boss.

Why the Thorns could win it all

But if this year’s Portland squad has made one thing clear, it’s that almost no barrier is insurmountable. Expectations weren’t high—for those of us outside the locker room, at least.

“If you would’ve been in our changing room, even in one of our first meetings in preseason…you could just tell there was such strong belief within us,” Thorns co-captain Mackenzie Arnold said ahead of Portland’s playoff-clinching victory over Angel City. “Off that energy, you knew we were going to be somewhat successful.”

The Thorns have earned points against every team in the league except the Current. And those results haven’t been easy; Portland’s 13 points earned by coming back from a losing position leads the NWSL in that category.

“The way the team has adapted to all of those moments has been extremely impressive,” Olivia Moultrie told WW in August. “If you have a team that are willing to fight and do anything it takes for each other—you’ve seen that anyone in this league can beat anyone—that can give you a little bit of an edge.”

Moultrie herself had something of a breakout year, leading her team in goals by picking out and capitalizing on attacking opportunities. She and the other members of the Thorns’ midfield trio—co-captain Sam Coffey and Canadian international Jessie Fleming—are one of the most talented midfield lines in the league.

Portland’s defense has shored up impressively since Vignola’s late-season addition. Portland has allowed only two goals since she joined the squad via a Sept. 30 trade with Angel City.

In that context, Vignola’s absence against Houston—and her as-of-now-questionable status against San Diego—obviously poses concern. But Portland still managed to shut out the Dash on Saturday. Goalkeeper Arnold’s growing confidence doesn’t hurt either—she’s coming off back-to-back shutouts.

Moultrie, Reilyn Turner and Tordin collectively have 17 of the team’s 35 goals, but the Thorns’ attack isn’t limited to those three. Twelve different players have scored for Portland this season, with eight or nine of those individuals likely available to play against San Diego.

Castellanos’ and Fleming’s goals against the Dash were the second each has scored this year, with both of those prior goals coming in April.

“I don’t know if we even played to our full potential this season,” Fleming said after the Houston victory. “I’m excited that we still get another game.”

And it’s true: The Thorns are still putting pieces together as the season progresses. Players like Moultrie and Arnold have grown into the season—as has Alexa Spaanstra, if more quietly. The ball is rolling, and the momentum is in Portland’s favor.

“We honestly just have a lot of fun together,” Fleming said, “and I think that shows up on the pitch.”