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ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FOR PORTLAND SCHOOLS SOUND WIDER ALARMS: An annual forecast for Portland Public Schools, conducted by the Population Research Center at Portland State University, projects enrollment will continue to decline at the district through the 2034–35 school year. That matters for the district’s budget because PPS gets state funding for each student it reports. The forecast found the district faces two challenges: Birth rate in the Portland area is declining, and fewer families are choosing to enroll their students in PPS. In March, PSU demographer Dr. Ethan Sharygin told WW his forecasts were based on an assumption that the status quo would continue. But the projections also tell a broader story about Portland, says one of the city’s top pollsters, John Horvick, who runs DHM Research. Horvick posted a chart Aug. 8 mapping PSU’s enrollment forecasts for PPS from 2007 through the latest forecast. The graph shows a stark decline in demographers’ optimism for the district’s enrollment recovery. The 2015 forecast, for example, predicted about 55,000 students for the 2028–29 school year. The latest forecast predicts PPS will dip below 40,000 that year, enrolling 39,945—about a 27% decline. “It just seems really fast, the shift in population demographic changes,” Horvick says, adding that a changing and aging population “is really important for long-term choices” and will matter for Portland’s future. “It has to matter…the choices we make to invest in kids, in schools, versus whether we have an aging population, and the choice we make to invest in housing affordability or senior health services,” he says. “Those things are going to matter.”
EMBATTLED ROCKWOOD BENEFACTOR TRIES AGAIN: Brad Ketch, the former tech executive-turned-nonprofit director who recently lost an emergency shelter contract with Multnomah County amid accounting disputes, is charging ahead with plans to build a four-story building with 56 units of affordable housing in the Rockwood section of Gresham, one of the poorest neighborhoods in the metro area. The Gresham Design Commission reviewed the proposed complex, called “Ash & Pine,” at a meeting Aug. 6. East County Housing LLC, an entity controlled by Ketch, proposes to combine four lots it owns between Southeast Ash and Pine streets off 181st Avenue and erect an L-shaped, 55,000-square-foot building, according to plans submitted to the Design Commission. East County owns another building 1½ miles north on 181st: Rockwood Tower, a family shelter that, until July 1, housed 50 homeless families, paid for by Multnomah County. The arrangement collapsed after East County Housing threatened to sue Multnomah County for unpaid bills and the county alleged East County had billed it for empty rooms and charged inflated prices for maintenance. Public documents show East County Housing borrowed $2.37 million from Washington Federal Bank in January, pledging Rockwood Tower and another property as collateral. East County Housing bought Rockwood Tower, an old Best Western hotel, in 2021, with a $6.8 million grant of taxpayer money awarded by the Oregon Community Foundation, which disbursed a total of $125 million to grantees who promised to turn old hotels into shelters across Oregon. East County Housing used the January loan for capital and operational expenses, repairs to Rockwood Tower, “and to fill gaps in the pre-development of Ash & Pine,” spokeswoman Savannah Carreno said in an email.
CELLPHONE BAN ROLLOUT HITS SNAGS: An executive order by Gov. Tina Kotek in early June instructed all 197 Oregon school districts to develop bell-to-bell cellphone policies. Oregon’s largest district, Portland Public Schools, was already one step ahead, having developed an off-and-away cellphone policy in effect through the end of last school year. But on Aug. 5, Portland School Board members raised concerns about implementing the governor’s policy ahead of the new academic year, slated to begin Aug. 26. One worry among School Board members was how different schools would enforce the cellphone ban, with some asking for money to buy Yondr pouches and others opting for cheaper lockboxes. Several noted Kotek’s order does not include any funding for enforcement tools like pouches. “There’s an immense cost, and that is not funded centrally,” PPS senior chief of operations Jon Franco said. Other board members pointed out that most parents were not aware of the extent of PPS’s electronics ban, which also applies to smartwatches and similar devices. But board members seemed most unsettled by loose communication around disciplinary action that could be taken if a student violated the district’s phone policy. Board member Stephanie Engelsman flagged language in the policy that said students could be subject to searches, “elevated response and progressive discipline,” and called for greater clarity. “The discipline thing is a potential area where poor students or students of color might be subject to more searches and disciplinary action,” added Michelle DePass, the board’s vice chair. “That concerns me.”
DRAZAN TESTS WATERS FOR 2026 RUN: House Minority Leader Christine Drazan (R-Canby) disclosed a $55,000 expenditure to the Virginia polling firm Public Opinion Strategies on Aug. 10. That’s the clearest sign yet that Drazan is considering a rematch against Gov. Tina Kotek next year. Kotek, a Democrat, defeated Drazan 46.96% to 43.54% in 2022, with nonaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson taking 8.63% of the vote. The opportunity for Drazan, some in her camp think, is to convince Johnson voters she is a better choice than Kotek. Marion County Commissioner Danielle Bethell has already announced her candidacy for the GOP nomination. Kotek has not yet officially announced she’ll seek reelection, but she is raising money and paying campaign staff. In a statement, Drazan said her eyes are on the present: “The special session is just around the corner and I remain focused on continuing to fight for agency accountability and to do all I can to stop out-of-touch politicians from driving costs higher with new taxes. I am here to make a difference and will always do what I can to help make things better for Oregonians.”
