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The number of legal psychedelic trips taken in Oregon will almost double in the two-year period ending in December 2027, according to the most recent forecast from the state’s Office of Economic Analysis.
Legal psilocybin sessions will rise to 52,000 in the current biennium from 28,000 in the two-year period that ended June 30, the office said in its September revenue forecast, released late last month.
The forecast indicates that state economists expect Oregon’s first-in-the-nation legal mushroom program will succeed in attracting participants, despite strong competition from underground trip sitters who don’t comply with costly state regulations and often advertise lower-priced sessions.
State economists called their forecast a “work in progress” because the program, approved by voters in 2020, is so new. “However, it is now based on the first two years of data, as opposed to pure assumptions,” they wrote.
The Office of Economic Analysis weighs in on the psilocybin program because the state levies a 15% tax on mushrooms that service centers sell to their clients. Service centers are facilities licensed by the state to conduct psychedelic “journeys.”
The state does not levy a sales tax on other costs for a session, including time in the service center and facilitation by trained guides, who are required to sit with clients at all times. Those costs can push the price of a session to $3,000.
The cost of the mushrooms is minimal, by comparison. The average price for a trip-inducing dose in the last biennium was $40, the economic office said. It is expected to rise to $42 in the current one and to $44 in 2027-29.
“Expectations are that the industry is still in its ramp-up period,” the economic office wrote. “The number of businesses, facilitators, and customers are all expected to grow in the years ahead.”
So far, service centers have struggled to stay in business. Several have closed already, blaming the high cost of complying with state regulations requiring security cameras, safes for storing mushrooms, rent, and insurance. The state also charges an annual fee of $10,000 for a service center license.
