Skip to main content
The doughnut hole strikes again.
In its latest forecast, Metro, the tri-county regional government, said its Supportive Housing Services levy would raise $351 million in the fiscal year that ends June 30, 2026, up 8% from $325 million from the year-earlier period.
But this year’s figure includes $40 million in business taxes paid in October that constituted obligations from past years. Getting payments late isn’t unusual, but the amount is. In October 2024, by comparison, Metro got $15 million.
Excluding the “one-time bump” in October collections, SHS receipts for this fiscal year would be little changed from fiscal 2024, held back by “pronounced weakness” in the local economy, “particularly in Multnomah County,” Metro said.
Metro’s SHS forecast is the second one in two months showing that Multnomah County is lagging surrounding ones. In November, economist Jeff Renfro told the County Board of Commissioners the same thing.
“Metro areas tend to go up and down together,” Renfro said in a public meeting Nov. 13. “To have one county in a metro area that’s performing pretty well and then one that’s really lagging is unusual.”
Critics of city and county policy say Portland and Multnomah County have become a doughnut-hole-like dead zone in the middle of the metro area because taxes are high relative to surrounding counties and services are poor. In their telling, people are leaving to avoid the levies and are taking their tax payments with them.
“Departing residents move primarily to Clackamas County, Washington County, and especially Clark County, Washington, where they can maintain Portland-area employment while avoiding Oregon, Metro, and Multnomah County’s income taxes,” Eric Fruits, an economics professor at Portland State University, wrote in the Oregon Business Report on Dec. 1. “This represents a direct vote of no confidence in the county’s service delivery relative to its tax burden.”
The amount Metro collects from the SHS levy determines how much Clackamas, Multnomah and Washington counties have available for rent assistance, eviction prevention, shelter beds and other programs.
“The metro region’s labor market lags national trends, even as the U.S. economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace,” Metro said. “Multnomah County employment, in particular, remains below pre-pandemic levels. The fact that the local economy is growing slower during an expansion period is unique in the last 40 years of economic activity.”
Even subtracting the $40 million in unusually large October SHS payments, this year’s collections, at $311 million, would far exceed the $250 million that Metro expected to raise each year when it put the tax before voters in May 2020.
But counties have become accustomed to the higher-than-expected tax receipts and have been using them to provide services. If collections don’t keep up with needs and inflation, counties must cut services to balance their budgets.
Multnomah County, for one, had to scramble for homeless dollars in February. County Chair Jessica Vega Pederson blamed a $104 million shortfall in part on slumping SHS revenue. Multnomah County collected $560 million from the levy from July 1, 2021, to June 30, 2025, Metro figures show. The county is forecast to receive $145.9 million this fiscal year.
