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Early election returns Tuesday evening showed Democrats on track to retain large majorities in both chambers of the Oregon legislature.
Whether the party would keep both of its legislative supermajorities remained an open question as the outcomes of several swing races remained too early to call. But Democrats held commanding early leads in key races.
Democrats went into Tuesday evening’s elections with a narrow hold on this supermajority, the 60% threshold that allows the party, if unified, to pass even tax legislation without GOP support. To keep this power, the party must continue to hold at least 18 seats in the Oregon Senate. And it can afford to lose just one of the 37 seats it currently holds in the state House of Representatives.
In an interview before polls closed Tuesday, Rep. Lucetta Elmer (R-McMinnville), the Oregon House Minority Leader, said an “entitlement” mentality descends upon parties with supermajority status, as they “can increase taxes on anything and they can pass whatever legislation they want without needing us at the table.”
Elmer says this diminishes the richness of policy discussions. But Oregon Speaker of the House Julie Fahey (D-Eugene) says keeping the supermajority does not change how she’d approach her work. In an interview midday Tuesday, Fahey said she and her colleagues have spent months planning their priority issues for the coming legislative session—health care, data centers, education and transportation, a focus on affordability for working families—and no matter what happens, she says anyone ready to “step up and do the work” will have a seat at the governing table.
Most districts in Oregon are politically polarized toward either Democrats or Republicans. Thus, the next legislature’s makeup will come down to a handful of purple districts, including some in the Portland metro area.
Tight races in east Multnomah, Clackamas, Hood River and Wasco Counties
In one closely-watched districts Republicans seek to hold, Rep. Jeff Helfrich (R-Hood River) had a 51.12% to 48.80% lead over Democrat Nicole Bassett in early returns for Senate District 26—a district currently represented by gubernatorial candidate Christine Drazan.
In seeking a promotion to that senate seat, Helfrich left his own seat up for grabs in House District 52—which encompasses Hood River, The Dalles and Government Camp. In the race to replace him, Democrat Hank Sanders led Republican Scott Hege in early returns, 56.07% to 43.81%—suggesting a potential flip for Democrats.
Meanwhile, in House District 51, incumbent Rep. Matt Bunch (R-Canby) held a 58.23% to 41.66% lead in early returns over Democrat Darla Mead, an oncology nurse.
And in House District 48, incumbent Rep. Lamar Wise (D-Powell Butte) held a 56.89% to 42.96% lead over challenger Andrew Morrison, a tech executive.
Tight races centered in Washington, Columbia, Clatsop and Tillamook Counties
In House District 31, encompassing Scappoose, St. Helens and Banks, incumbent Rep. Darcey Edwards sought to defend her seat against Democrat Tom Forest. Edwards was up 55.53% to 44.33% in early returns.
Meanwhile, in House District 32 on the North Oregon coast, the incumbent, Rep. Cyrus Javadi—who changed his affiliation from Republican to Democrat in 2025—now faces a challenger from his old party. Early returns showed Javadi up 53.22% to 46.59% over Republican Max Sherman.
Republicans looked to hold their seat in Senate District 16, which spans Scappoose, Astoria and Tillamook, even as incumbent Sen. Suzanne Weber is barred from running for reelection due to her participation in a 2023 legislative walkout. Early returns showed Republican Clatsop County Commissioner Courtney Bangs up 49.71% to 46.17% over Democrat Rachel Armitage.
Other closely-watched races
In Senate District 11, centered on Marion County, the GOP sought to hold onto a seat that Sen. Kim Thatcher is set to vacate at the end of this term after her participation in the 2023 GOP walkout disqualified her from seeking reelection. In early returns, Democrat Virginia Stapleton held a 54.27% to 45.73% lead over Republican Tracy Cramer.
And in House District 21 covering Marion and Polk counties, incumbent Rep. Kevin Mannix (R-North Salem) hoped to defend his seat against Democratic challenger Michael Welsh. Early returns showed Welsh up 55.38% to 44.62%.
No surprises in other Portland-area races
In Washington County, two Democratic—and Democratic Socialist of America—candidates, Myrna Muñoz and Tammy Carpenter, both appeared on their way to an easy victory—bolstering the Democrats’ left wing in Salem.
Meanwhile, a swath of Portland area incumbents looked poised to retain their seats.
