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This story was produced by the Oregon Journalism Project, a nonprofit newsroom covering the state.
Although the Republican primary for governor is the marquee race on Oregon’s May 19 ballot, no independent assessment of the race has circulated until now.
Numbers released April 20 by Nelson Research of Salem show a convincing lead for state Sen. Christine Drazan (R-Canby) over the two other top candidates, state Rep. Ed Diehl (R-Stayton) and former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley.
J.L. Wilson, owner of Nelson Research and Public Affairs Counsel, a large lobbying firm, says he’s not working with any campaign and paid for the poll himself. “I wanted to know the state of the race,” Wilson says. “It was an independent poll.” (Oregon Public Broadcasting first reported on it.)
Given that Drazan, the 2022 Republican nominee, came up short against Democrat Tina Kotek four years ago, some political observers wonder whether Diehl, a two-term incumbent who helped refer a gas tax repeal to the May ballot, or Dudley, the 2010 GOP nominee who nearly beat Democrat John Kitzhaber, might appeal more to Republicans eager to break Democrats’ 40-year hold on the governor’s office.
So far, according to the new poll, voters appear ready to give Drazan another chance. She leads both Diehl and Dudley by about 2 to 1: The poll, which surveyed 515 likely Republican primary voters and has a margin of error of 4.3%, found that if the election were held today, 31.1% would vote for Drazan, 15.6% for Diehl, and 14% for Dudley.
When respondents were asked if they absolutely had to vote—a question that picks up “leaners”—the results skewed even further in Drazan’s favor.
Here’s that result, including “leaners.”
The poll also shows that President Donald Trump retains a high approval rating among likely Oregon Republican voters, with 74.3% of poll respondents saying they view Trump either “strongly” (58.4%) or “somewhat” (15.9%) favorably.
The poll’s cross tabs, which include more detailed information about the respondents, their demographics and their outlooks, split the respondents into three categories of Republican: “traditional,” “America first,” and “moderate.”
Among the “America first” voters, Drazan also holds a wide lead, as she does with women voters.
Brittany Yanick, a spokeswoman for the Dudley campaign, says despite what the new poll shows, Dudley has made big gains since entering the race in January. “Chris is closing the gap steadily,” Yanick says. “Voters are moving to Chris because they know Salem’s problems are not going to be solved by someone from Salem.” (Diehl’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.)
Drazan’s campaign says the poll shows she is best equipped to challenge Kotek, who faces no substantive opposition in the Democratic primary.
“Christine Drazan continues to unite Republicans,” says her campaign spokesman, Sam Herscovitz. “She has been a loyal fighter for Oregon families, and it’s no surprise that she is leading by a commanding margin.”
Ballots will be mailed to voters starting April 29.
