Murmurs: Preschool for All Needs 3,000 Fewer Seats Than Expected

PRESCHOOL FOR ALL NEEDS 3,000 FEWER SEATS THAN EXPECTED: New population estimates presented to Multnomah County commissioners July 21 dramatically alter the financial outlook of the county’s universal preschool program. Preliminary data from Portland State University’s Population Research Center indicates the program needs about 3,000 fewer seats than previously estimated to reach universality, county economist Jeff Renfro told commissioners. The county will need “just above 8,000 seats” in population scenarios that assume low and baseline growth, Renfro said. That’s thousands fewer than original assumptions that it would need 11,200 seats by 2030 to place every 3- and 4-year-old whose family wanted one. The new estimates assume a 77.5% participation rate, accounting for federal- and state-subsidized preschool programs that operate locally. And they take into account the Portland metro area’s flatlining population. (In a high population growth scenario, it should be noted, PSU estimates the county could still need close to the original 11,200, but county officials did not yet have a strong understanding of that forecast.) The new population estimates ease county officials’ fears that the program won’t have enough money from a tax on high earners to fund all the needs of preschool providers. Even if the county were to delay a planned tax rate increase and incorporate new, higher reimbursement rates per seat based on a true cost of care study, modeling indicates the program’s fund balance would dip to only about $250 million in fiscal year 2031, before recovering to just under $750 million by fiscal year 2039. “The thing that really moves our expenses assumptions is the number of seats we’re providing and how expensive those seats are,” Renfro said. “So when we decrease the number of seats we need by 3,000, it has an enormous impact on our assumptions going forward.”

DONATION-SWAPPING CANDIDATES ‘LIKELY’ BROKE STATE LAW: The Oregon Department of Justice says it believes 12 candidates for Portland office “likely” violated state law before the fall 2024 election when they agreed to swap donations with one another in order to unlock public campaign finance dollars. That’s according to a July 21 letter that senior assistant attorney general Tobias Tingleaf sent to the 12 candidates who agreed to swap donations in the fall of 2024 as they ran for city office. The donation-swapping was first revealed by WW (“Swap Meet,” Sept. 11, 2024). “Our review suggests that it is likely that you violated that law by agreeing to donate to another candidate’s campaign in exchange for a donation to your own,” Tingleaf wrote to the candidates, who include current Portland City Councilor Eric Zimmerman. Tingleaf said DOJ would not pursue criminal charges, in part because candidates were still learning a new system in 2024. He cautioned, however, that “similar behavior in the future by you or other candidates may be prosecuted as a crime.” Zimmerman could not be immediately reached for comment.

ICE PROTESTER CRIMINAL CASES FIZZLE IN COURT: Forty-three percent of the people Portland police arrested at protests against immigration enforcement have had their cases dismissed or dropped with no complaint or they’ve been acquitted, a WW analysis has found. Of the eight defendants who went to trial, five were acquitted, and those convicted received only short probations. That suggests juries have largely found that the charges don’t pass muster. “When arrests are made, they’re based on probable cause that a crime was committed by the person,” Sgt. Kevin Allen, a Portland Police Bureau spokesman, tells WW. “When a public order situation is becoming dangerous, there are times where arrests are made based on probable cause to prevent a situation from further escalating,” Only one person got any jail time—and just 10 days of it—after pleading guilty to second-degree arson. The other 26 people who signed plea deals largely received short probations and community service. That trend closely matches federal cases of protesters charged with assaulting federal officers. Most of those began as felonies and ended in misdemeanor pleas with short probations (“Petering Out,” WW, July 8). The local cases also reveal a second front in the battle on the South Waterfront, between protesters and the Trump-loyalist livestreamers and counterprotesters who came to support immigration agencies. Court records reveal spats ranging from protesters smacking livestreamers’ phones to a counterprotester punching a protester, who was knocked unconscious when they hit the pavement.

FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF SHAMELESS SELF-PROMOTION: WW received nine prizes at the AAN Awards, a national contest recognizing the best work by alternative news media in 2025. Among the haul were five first-place awards, the most by any outlet in the national contest. Culture reporter Rachel Saslow won first prize in the free speech and democracy reporting category for her profile of Seth Todd, the South Waterfront protester who donned an inflatable frog costume and inadvertently spawned a national absurdist resistance movement to President Trump’s immigration dragnet (“Portlander of the Year: The Frog,” WW, Dec. 24, 2025). “If one of the great reasons for having an alternative outlet is to report the accurate record from the ground of a story that ballooned nationally and somewhere in that process became grossly distorted,” wrote a contest judge, “then the tale of Portland’s frog as told by Rachel Saslow is the finest example of this critical utility imaginable.” City Hall reporter Sophie Peel took home two first prizes: one for environmental reporting for her investigation into the draconian enforcement of Portland’s tree code, and another for leading WW’s team of summer interns—Seychelle Marks-Bienen, Senya Scott and Asa Gartrell—on a journey into an East Portland urban renewal area that had gotten worse. Anthony Effinger won first prize in health care reporting for his examination of a star-crossed merger bid between Oregon Health & Science University and Legacy Health. Whitney McPhie was awarded first place in editorial design for the pages of a story on urban beekeeping.